september 6–9, 2018

2018 Elections – What to Expect

Tyler Sinclair

Managing Director
Client Services
Morning Consult

Morning Consult’s Managing Director, Tyler Sinclair, presented the results of recent polls on the 2018 midterm elections, which examined the public’s perspectives on the Trump Administration, Governors, and Senators, as well as issue awareness and ranking of concerns among Americans across the nation.

Morning Consult’s research includes tracking for 5,000 brand and that tracking includes political questions. In the last month, Morning Consult completed 300,000 surveys, and reported results that are reliable with a 0.1% confidence interval, Mr. Tyler told the forum. He reported on trends for the 2018 elections. The poll results were reported according to how strongly partisan each district is. Republicans are facing an “enthusiasm gap.” Democrats in Democratic districts are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates, than Republican voters in Republican districts are likely to vote for their Party’s candidates. Results of the poll were further segmented for those States that face a competitive Senate or House race. Respondents indicated their preferences on a Likert scale, from strongly disapprove to strongly approve.

Topline Results

President Trump

President Trump’s approval rating remains static from last month with 44% of voters approving of the President’s performance while 52% disapprove. However, 73% of Democrats strongly disapprove of the President’s performance, while only 49% of Republicans strongly approve it. In State’s with competitive State races, President Trump’s approval lags behind in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, ranging from -1 to -15 points. There have also been minor shifts in other key states, and nearly all the shifts have been negative. Even in safely Republican districts with competitive Congressional races, Mr. Trump’s ratings of “strongly approve” (30%) and “strongly disapprove” (29%) are close.

President Trump’s Approval Rating by Party

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Senate

At the end of primary season, conditions remain favorable for incumbents, most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents. However, even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person. Only Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) and Sen. Dean Heller (NV) receive negative job performance ratings from their constituents, while conditions appear slightly more favorable for Sen. Jon Tester (MT) and worse for Sen. Bill Nelson (FL).

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent,
by Congressional District Competitiveness

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

House

On the generic Congressional ballot, voting follows party lines; however, a majority (53%) of independents remains undecided. Voters in districts that lean Republican are less likely to vote Republican, compared with districts that lean Democratic, where the Democratic candidate has more support. In toss-up districts, the generic Democratic candidate continues to edge out the Republican candidate, 41% to 35%. However, across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

Top Policy Issues

Voters in the poll were asked to identify a single top issue. The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered. This was true for Democrats and independents; however, Republicans rated security issues as their top concern, with economic issues in second place. Security, health care and senior issues ranked in the top 4, and education issues ranked 5 across all segments.

Top Policy Issues Among All Voters

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Discussion

Sen. John Cullerton (IL): Today, 53% of the electorate in Illinois is female. How do you make sure you have a representative sample as demographics change?

Mr. Sinclair: Our sample includes 52% females and 48% males based on the 2016 rolls of registered voters and the census.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): The approval rating suggest that president Trump is in trouble with Republicans, but in Congressional races, his rating doesn’t seem to be an issue. The races look equal between Democrats and republicans.

Mr. Sinclair: In the aggregate, the numbers look equal between Republicans and Democrats, but the Democrats have advantages in the toss-up districts.

Sen. Rodric Bray (IN): Does this look like other midterm races for prior administrations?

Mr. Sinclair: President Trump’s ratings are similar to President Obama’s midterm rating: Mr. Obama was net even in approval and disapproval ratings. But the Affordable Care Act was a stimulus that motivated Republicans to get out the vote in opposition. For President George W. Bush, the 9/11 disaster was a defining moment that contributed to high midterm approval ratings. But President Trump has neither a defining moment nor a specific policy that is motivational to bring out the vote, either for or against. That makes this election different, despite the similar approval ratings.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): How do you correct the data for social bias, for example, if people say in public that they do not approve of President Trump but will vote for him in private.

Mr. Sinclair: Social bias is less of an issue in online surveys because they are anonymous. In fact, President Trump’s online approval rating are about 3 points higher than phone-based surveys because of the anonymity online.

Sen. Martin Looney (CT): What is the impact of Congressional primaries on the general election, when incumbents are defeated in primaries and their seats are open.

Mr. Sinclair: This is happening even in safe Congressional districts and among voters who approve of incumbents’ performances. The general theme is that want to elect new leaders.

Sen. Ginny Burdick (OR): How does the “enthusiasm gap” today compare with the situation in 2010 at President Obama’s midterm?

Sen. Larry Taylor (TX): Pointed out that midterm Gallup polls for Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter all hovered around the same 44% approval rating that President Trump currently has.

Mr. Sinclair: While the absolute approval ratings are similar, the difference is in the intensity. In this election, Democrats are more strongly committed to their Party’s candidates.

Sen. Robert Stivers (KY): It seems that there is a state of confusion, that the electorate really doesn’t know what it wants.

Mr. Sinclair: Voters don’t like any politicians and want to get them out and get new people in. The midterm election numbers are more intense than they have been before.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): It surprises me that Women’s Issues come near the bottom of the list of 8 top issues.

Christopher Doty (Morning Consult): This survey asked people to make a choice of only one top issue. When you ask voters to identify 3 top issues, Women’s Issues come to the top. However, in this poll, Women’s issues were cited only by 2-6% of respondents across all the segments.

John Burchette (Google): How do you measure “intensity?” Do you use measures such as “Strongly approve,” or likelihood to vote, or “how much do you care?”

Mr. Sinclair: Our polls measure intensity on a weekly basis. We use a Likert scale, which gives choices from strongly approve, somewhat approve, no option/don’t know, to some what disapprove, and strongly disapprove. We also include a “likelihood to vote” metric.

Sen. Phil Berger (NC): How can we have any confidence in polling when pollsters got so much so wrong in the 2016 election?

Mr. Sinclair: Actually, for the national popular vote, Morning Consult’s predictions were within 0.7% of the actuals. Other polls for 2016 were accurate at the national level, but the State polls were off, probably because they were conducted too early. Later in the race, pollsters thought they did not need to revisit areas that had polled strongly for a candidate. Furthermore, forecasters displayed the data in ways that made misinterpretations possible.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): We all perceived that the polls were wrong because the news media put the spin on the data.

Mr. Sinclair: I agree that the media did not represent the statistics accurately.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): With the economy and security issues at the top of the issues list, does that bode ill for the Republicans in the midterm elections?

Mr. Sinclair: It depends on what voters mean by “the economy.” Are they interested in minimum wage laws, tax cuts, or rights in the workplace? A poll is a snapshot in time, that’s why we do surveys every week. Voter preferences change.

John Burchette (Google): I think the top issue for voters is President Trump. Whether voters are pro or con about him, not any policies.

Olivia Myszkowski (Morning Consult): People’s opinions about President Trump are very intense on both sides and this certainly plays a role in the midterm elections.

Speaker Biography

Tyler Sinclair

Kim Tyler Sinclair joined Morning Consult in 2015 and oversees the company's client services division, providing strategic guidance and insights on public opinion, advocacy and communications to over 150 Fortune 500 companies and trade associations. Previously, Tyler spent two years as a Project Director for The Winston Group, where he conceptualized and executed market research projects and provided strategic counsel on client issues. Prior to that, Tyler held legislative roles for Senator Rob Portman and Former House Speaker John Boehner. Tyler earned MA and BA degrees in Political Science from Miami University (OH).

Even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person.

Across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered.

Sen. John Cullerton (IL)

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT)

Tom Finneran (Moderator)

Sen. Martin Looney (CT)

Sen. Ginny Burdick (OR)

Sen. Larry Taylor (TX)

Sen. Rodric Bray (IN)

Sen. Robert Stivers (KY)

Christopher Doty
(Morning Consult)

John Burchette (Google)

Sen. Phil Berger (NC)

Olivia Myszkowski
(Morning Consult)

Tyler Sinclair

CONTACT

Senate Presidents’ Forum

579 Broadway

Hastings-on-Hudson, NY 10706

 

Tel: 914-693-1818

Copyright © 2018 Senate Presidents' Forum. All rights reserved.

september 6–9, 2018

2018 Elections – What to Expect

Tyler Sinclair

Managing Director
Client Services
Morning Consult

Morning Consult’s Managing Director, Tyler Sinclair, presented the results of recent polls on the 2018 midterm elections, which examined the public’s perspectives on the Trump Administration, Governors, and Senators, as well as issue awareness and ranking of concerns among Americans across the nation.

Morning Consult’s research includes tracking for 5,000 brand and that tracking includes political questions. In the last month, Morning Consult completed 300,000 surveys, and reported results that are reliable with a 0.1% confidence interval, Mr. Tyler told the forum. He reported on trends for the 2018 elections. The poll results were reported according to how strongly partisan each district is. Republicans are facing an “enthusiasm gap.” Democrats in Democratic districts are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates, than Republican voters in Republican districts are likely to vote for their Party’s candidates. Results of the poll were further segmented for those States that face a competitive Senate or House race. Respondents indicated their preferences on a Likert scale, from strongly disapprove to strongly approve.

Topline Results

President Trump

President Trump’s approval rating remains static from last month with 44% of voters approving of the President’s performance while 52% disapprove. However, 73% of Democrats strongly disapprove of the President’s performance, while only 49% of Republicans strongly approve it. In State’s with competitive State races, President Trump’s approval lags behind in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, ranging from -1 to -15 points. There have also been minor shifts in other key states, and nearly all the shifts have been negative. Even in safely Republican districts with competitive Congressional races, Mr. Trump’s ratings of “strongly approve” (30%) and “strongly disapprove” (29%) are close.

President Trump’s Approval Rating by Party

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Senate

At the end of primary season, conditions remain favorable for incumbents, most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents. However, even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person. Only Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) and Sen. Dean Heller (NV) receive negative job performance ratings from their constituents, while conditions appear slightly more favorable for Sen. Jon Tester (MT) and worse for Sen. Bill Nelson (FL).

Even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person.

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent,
by Congressional District Competitiveness

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

House

On the generic Congressional ballot, voting follows party lines; however, a majority (53%) of independents remains undecided. Voters in districts that lean Republican are less likely to vote Republican, compared with districts that lean Democratic, where the Democratic candidate has more support. In toss-up districts, the generic Democratic candidate continues to edge out the Republican candidate, 41% to 35%. However, across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

Across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

Top Policy Issues

Voters in the poll were asked to identify a single top issue. The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered. This was true for Democrats and independents; however, Republicans rated security issues as their top concern, with economic issues in second place. Security, health care and senior issues ranked in the top 4, and education issues ranked 5 across all segments.

The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered.

Top Policy Issues Among All Voters

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Discussion

Sen. John Cullerton (IL): Today, 53% of the electorate in Illinois is female. How do you make sure you have a representative sample as demographics change?

Mr. Sinclair: Our sample includes 52% females and 48% males based on the 2016 rolls of registered voters and the census.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): The approval rating suggest that president Trump is in trouble with Republicans, but in Congressional races, his rating doesn’t seem to be an issue. The races look equal between Democrats and republicans.

Mr. Sinclair: In the aggregate, the numbers look equal between Republicans and Democrats, but the Democrats have advantages in the toss-up districts.

Sen. Rodric Bray (IN): Does this look like other midterm races for prior administrations?

Mr. Sinclair: President Trump’s ratings are similar to President Obama’s midterm rating: Mr. Obama was net even in approval and disapproval ratings. But the Affordable Care Act was a stimulus that motivated Republicans to get out the vote in opposition. For President George W. Bush, the 9/11 disaster was a defining moment that contributed to high midterm approval ratings. But President Trump has neither a defining moment nor a specific policy that is motivational to bring out the vote, either for or against. That makes this election different, despite the similar approval ratings.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): How do you correct the data for social bias, for example, if people say in public that they do not approve of President Trump but will vote for him in private.

Mr. Sinclair: Social bias is less of an issue in online surveys because they are anonymous. In fact, President Trump’s online approval rating are about 3 points higher than phone-based surveys because of the anonymity online.

Sen. Martin Looney (CT): What is the impact of Congressional primaries on the general election, when incumbents are defeated in primaries and their seats are open.

Mr. Sinclair: This is happening even in safe Congressional districts and among voters who approve of incumbents’ performances. The general theme is that want to elect new leaders.

Sen. Ginny Burdick (OR): How does the “enthusiasm gap” today compare with the situation in 2010 at President Obama’s midterm?

Sen. Larry Taylor (TX): Pointed out that midterm Gallup polls for Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter all hovered around the same 44% approval rating that President Trump currently has.

Mr. Sinclair: While the absolute approval ratings are similar, the difference is in the intensity. In this election, Democrats are more strongly committed to their Party’s candidates.

Sen. Robert Stivers (KY): It seems that there is a state of confusion, that the electorate really doesn’t know what it wants.

Mr. Sinclair: Voters don’t like any politicians and want to get them out and get new people in. The midterm election numbers are more intense than they have been before.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): It surprises me that Women’s Issues come near the bottom of the list of 8 top issues.

Christopher Doty (Morning Consult): This survey asked people to make a choice of only one top issue. When you ask voters to identify 3 top issues, Women’s Issues come to the top. However, in this poll, Women’s issues were cited only by 2-6% of respondents across all the segments.

John Burchette (Google): How do you measure “intensity?” Do you use measures such as “Strongly approve,” or likelihood to vote, or “how much do you care?”

Mr. Sinclair: Our polls measure intensity on a weekly basis. We use a Likert scale, which gives choices from strongly approve, somewhat approve, no option/don’t know, to some what disapprove, and strongly disapprove. We also include a “likelihood to vote” metric.

Sen. Phil Berger (NC): How can we have any confidence in polling when pollsters got so much so wrong in the 2016 election?

Mr. Sinclair: Actually, for the national popular vote, Morning Consult’s predictions were within 0.7% of the actuals. Other polls for 2016 were accurate at the national level, but the State polls were off, probably because they were conducted too early. Later in the race, pollsters thought they did not need to revisit areas that had polled strongly for a candidate. Furthermore, forecasters displayed the data in ways that made misinterpretations possible.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): We all perceived that the polls were wrong because the news media put the spin on the data.

Mr. Sinclair: I agree that the media did not represent the statistics accurately.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): With the economy and security issues at the top of the issues list, does that bode ill for the Republicans in the midterm elections?

Mr. Sinclair: It depends on what voters mean by “the economy.” Are they interested in minimum wage laws, tax cuts, or rights in the workplace? A poll is a snapshot in time, that’s why we do surveys every week. Voter preferences change.

John Burchette (Google): I think the top issue for voters is President Trump. Whether voters are pro or con about him, not any policies.

Olivia Myszkowski (Morning Consult): People’s opinions about President Trump are very intense on both sides and this certainly plays a role in the midterm elections.

Speaker Biography

Tyler Sinclair

Kim Tyler Sinclair joined Morning Consult in 2015 and oversees the company's client services division, providing strategic guidance and insights on public opinion, advocacy and communications to over 150 Fortune 500 companies and trade associations. Previously, Tyler spent two years as a Project Director for The Winston Group, where he conceptualized and executed market research projects and provided strategic counsel on client issues. Prior to that, Tyler held legislative roles for Senator Rob Portman and Former House Speaker John Boehner. Tyler earned MA and BA degrees in Political Science from Miami University (OH).

september 6–9, 2018

2018 Elections – What to Expect

Tyler Sinclair

Managing Director
Client Services
Morning Consult

Morning Consult’s Managing Director, Tyler Sinclair, presented the results of recent polls on the 2018 midterm elections, which examined the public’s perspectives on the Trump Administration, Governors, and Senators, as well as issue awareness and ranking of concerns among Americans across the nation.

Morning Consult’s research includes tracking for 5,000 brand and that tracking includes political questions. In the last month, Morning Consult completed 300,000 surveys, and reported results that are reliable with a 0.1% confidence interval, Mr. Tyler told the forum. He reported on trends for the 2018 elections. The poll results were reported according to how strongly partisan each district is. Republicans are facing an “enthusiasm gap.” Democrats in Democratic districts are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates, than Republican voters in Republican districts are likely to vote for their Party’s candidates. Results of the poll were further segmented for those States that face a competitive Senate or House race. Respondents indicated their preferences on a Likert scale, from strongly disapprove to strongly approve.

Topline Results

President Trump

President Trump’s approval rating remains static from last month with 44% of voters approving of the President’s performance while 52% disapprove. However, 73% of Democrats strongly disapprove of the President’s performance, while only 49% of Republicans strongly approve it. In State’s with competitive State races, President Trump’s approval lags behind in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, ranging from -1 to -15 points. There have also been minor shifts in other key states, and nearly all the shifts have been negative. Even in safely Republican districts with competitive Congressional races, Mr. Trump’s ratings of “strongly approve” (30%) and “strongly disapprove” (29%) are close.

President Trump’s Approval Rating by Party

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Senate

At the end of primary season, conditions remain favorable for incumbents, most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents. However, even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person. Only Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) and Sen. Dean Heller (NV) receive negative job performance ratings from their constituents, while conditions appear slightly more favorable for Sen. Jon Tester (MT) and worse for Sen. Bill Nelson (FL).

Even incumbents with adequate approval ratings face challenges in safely Republican or Democratic districts, as 45% of voters says it’s time for a new person.

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent,
by Congressional District Competitiveness

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

House

On the generic Congressional ballot, voting follows party lines; however, a majority (53%) of independents remains undecided. Voters in districts that lean Republican are less likely to vote Republican, compared with districts that lean Democratic, where the Democratic candidate has more support. In toss-up districts, the generic Democratic candidate continues to edge out the Republican candidate, 41% to 35%. However, across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

Across all districts approximately a quarter of all votes are still undecided.

Top Policy Issues

Voters in the poll were asked to identify a single top issue. The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered. This was true for Democrats and independents; however, Republicans rated security issues as their top concern, with economic issues in second place. Security, health care and senior issues ranked in the top 4, and education issues ranked 5 across all segments.

The economy ranked as the top issue when all Americans are considered.

Top Policy Issues Among All Voters

SOURCE: Morning Consult, 2018 Midterms (presentation); September 8, 2018.

Discussion

Sen. John Cullerton (IL): Today, 53% of the electorate in Illinois is female. How do you make sure you have a representative sample as demographics change?

Mr. Sinclair: Our sample includes 52% females and 48% males based on the 2016 rolls of registered voters and the census.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): The approval rating suggest that president Trump is in trouble with Republicans, but in Congressional races, his rating doesn’t seem to be an issue. The races look equal between Democrats and republicans.

Mr. Sinclair: In the aggregate, the numbers look equal between Republicans and Democrats, but the Democrats have advantages in the toss-up districts.

Sen. Rodric Bray (IN): Does this look like other midterm races for prior administrations?

Mr. Sinclair: President Trump’s ratings are similar to President Obama’s midterm rating: Mr. Obama was net even in approval and disapproval ratings. But the Affordable Care Act was a stimulus that motivated Republicans to get out the vote in opposition. For President George W. Bush, the 9/11 disaster was a defining moment that contributed to high midterm approval ratings. But President Trump has neither a defining moment nor a specific policy that is motivational to bring out the vote, either for or against. That makes this election different, despite the similar approval ratings.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): How do you correct the data for social bias, for example, if people say in public that they do not approve of President Trump but will vote for him in private.

Mr. Sinclair: Social bias is less of an issue in online surveys because they are anonymous. In fact, President Trump’s online approval rating are about 3 points higher than phone-based surveys because of the anonymity online.

Sen. Martin Looney (CT): What is the impact of Congressional primaries on the general election, when incumbents are defeated in primaries and their seats are open.

Mr. Sinclair: This is happening even in safe Congressional districts and among voters who approve of incumbents’ performances. The general theme is that want to elect new leaders.

Sen. Ginny Burdick (OR): How does the “enthusiasm gap” today compare with the situation in 2010 at President Obama’s midterm?

Sen. Larry Taylor (TX): Pointed out that midterm Gallup polls for Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter all hovered around the same 44% approval rating that President Trump currently has.

Mr. Sinclair: While the absolute approval ratings are similar, the difference is in the intensity. In this election, Democrats are more strongly committed to their Party’s candidates.

Sen. Robert Stivers (KY): It seems that there is a state of confusion, that the electorate really doesn’t know what it wants.

Mr. Sinclair: Voters don’t like any politicians and want to get them out and get new people in. The midterm election numbers are more intense than they have been before.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): It surprises me that Women’s Issues come near the bottom of the list of 8 top issues.

Christopher Doty (Morning Consult): This survey asked people to make a choice of only one top issue. When you ask voters to identify 3 top issues, Women’s Issues come to the top. However, in this poll, Women’s issues were cited only by 2-6% of respondents across all the segments.

John Burchette (Google): How do you measure “intensity?” Do you use measures such as “Strongly approve,” or likelihood to vote, or “how much do you care?”

Mr. Sinclair: Our polls measure intensity on a weekly basis. We use a Likert scale, which gives choices from strongly approve, somewhat approve, no option/don’t know, to some what disapprove, and strongly disapprove. We also include a “likelihood to vote” metric.

Sen. Phil Berger (NC): How can we have any confidence in polling when pollsters got so much so wrong in the 2016 election?

Mr. Sinclair: Actually, for the national popular vote, Morning Consult’s predictions were within 0.7% of the actuals. Other polls for 2016 were accurate at the national level, but the State polls were off, probably because they were conducted too early. Later in the race, pollsters thought they did not need to revisit areas that had polled strongly for a candidate. Furthermore, forecasters displayed the data in ways that made misinterpretations possible.

Sen. Wayne Niederhauser (UT): We all perceived that the polls were wrong because the news media put the spin on the data.

Mr. Sinclair: I agree that the media did not represent the statistics accurately.

Tom Finneran (Moderator): With the economy and security issues at the top of the issues list, does that bode ill for the Republicans in the midterm elections?

Mr. Sinclair: It depends on what voters mean by “the economy.” Are they interested in minimum wage laws, tax cuts, or rights in the workplace? A poll is a snapshot in time, that’s why we do surveys every week. Voter preferences change.

John Burchette (Google): I think the top issue for voters is President Trump. Whether voters are pro or con about him, not any policies.

Olivia Myszkowski (Morning Consult): People’s opinions about President Trump are very intense on both sides and this certainly plays a role in the midterm elections.

Speaker Biography

Tyler Sinclair

Kim Tyler Sinclair joined Morning Consult in 2015 and oversees the company's client services division, providing strategic guidance and insights on public opinion, advocacy and communications to over 150 Fortune 500 companies and trade associations. Previously, Tyler spent two years as a Project Director for The Winston Group, where he conceptualized and executed market research projects and provided strategic counsel on client issues. Prior to that, Tyler held legislative roles for Senator Rob Portman and Former House Speaker John Boehner. Tyler earned MA and BA degrees in Political Science from Miami University (OH).